The Case for Keeping Chris Carter

By Nathan Petrashek

Its undeniable Chris Carter is on a tear.  In his last three games, he’s cleared the fence four times, chipping in a double and single to boot.  On the season, Carter has a robust .287/.356/.713 triple slash line, a dramatic improvement over last season’s .199/.307/.427 line, which got him non-tendered from the Astros last season.  As further evidence, Carter is rocking an elite 167 wRC+.  For context, Trevor Story, whose performance has arguably been the story (pun intended) of April, has a 132.

Carter, who is on a one-year deal but is arbitration-eligible and under team control for the next two seasons, will undoubtedly be talked about as a trade candidate for the rebuilding Brewers.  But there are clues that David Stearns has not committed to a “full” rebuild, and keeping Chris Carter may just be in the team’s best interests.

There’s no doubt Carter is one of the premier power bats in the game.  Carter has hit the 8th most home runs in baseball between 2013 and 2016.  He’s also 8th in ISO over that span, with .252.  There are certainly fleas (33.4% K rate, worst in the major leagues over that stretch), but when he makes contact, the ball flies.

Carter’s power is a bit of a big deal this season because the Brewers don’t have a lot of true home run threats, a departure from years past.  Ryan Braun, who has five so far, will get his share, but beyond that the power situation doesn’t look so hot.  Domingo Santana (3 HR, 7 2B) is probably the next best power hitter on the team, and while his future looks bright, he’s generally hitting leadoff and is still a bit of an unknown quantity.  Jonathan Lucroy is a good pure hitter, but struggled last season and is only slugging .420 so far this year.  And beyond that … woof.  The Brewers are currently middle-of-the-pack in HR and SLG, and a fair amount of that is due to Scooter Gennet (4 HR, 4 2B) who has never been a power bat and is, in any event, currently on the DL.

On the whole, the benefits of keeping Carter and letting him play out the year well exceed the benefits of a potential trade.  Carter can make baseball in Milwaukee watchable for 2016, and potentially beyond.  I mean, the guy hits 430-foot home runs.  That IS an asset, as it keeps folks interested and helps put butts in seats as the Brewers rebuild.  The cost of keeping Carter the next couple seasons will be minimal.  Contrast these matters with the potential benefits of a trade.  While Carter is a premier slugger, the problems inherent in his game mean he is not nearly as important to other clubs.  It is not reasonable to expect Carter to return anything close to a high-end prospect.

That’s not to say the Brewers shouldn’t trade him if they get a great offer.  They should.  I just don’t see that forthcoming, and meanwhile, Brewers baseball is pretty fun.

 

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