Doomed by starting pitching

By Nathan Petrashek (@npetrashek)

Most reasonable forecasts of the 2017 Brewers saw them having an above-average offense, a decent bullpen and a below-average starting rotation.  Back in mid-April, when the Brewers were the Hottest Team in Baseball, they tended to buck this expectation: a series sweep in Toronto with 4-3 and 2-0 wins, followed by consecutive wins in Cincinnati of 5-1 and 10-4.  During that stretch, starters Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson, Tommy Milone and Chase Anderson limited their opponents to 7 runs over 25 innings, with 22 Ks to show for their efforts.  Peralta chipped in again with a 6-inning, 2-run effort in the final game of that Reds series.

It was fun while it lasted.  The Brewers, staked at one point to a 10-4 lead yesterday, eeked out an 11-7 win over the Reds.  Matt Garza, in his 2017 debut, pitched much worse than his final line shows, allowing 4 runs over 4 innings (only 1 earned).  In the four-game series against the Cardinals, only Chase Anderson was able to last 6 innings; Peralta imploded for 6 earned runs, Zach Davies for 4, and Nelson walked 6 in his 5 1/3-inning start.

Collectively, Brewers starters are 27th in baseball in ERA (4.53), 29th in opponent batting average (.271), and 29th in WHIP (1.39).  Call me a pessimist, but I don’t see Matt Garza riding in on a white horse to improve those numbers.  Meanwhile, the Brewers lead the MLB by a huge margin in HR (37) and SLG (.463).  They’re third in SB (17), runs (102), and OPS (.770), the latter of which just goes to show that the Brewers struggle to get on base despite a seemingly team-wide trend towards plate discipline.  And of course, the Brewers lead the league in strikeouts, with 214.

Heavy hitting, high scoring, high strikeout, bad starting pitching.  The 2017 Brewers, through April 25th, are who we thought they were.

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