Assessing the Brewers’ Playoff Chances

The recently completed Chicago Cubs series at Miller Park was disappointing on a number of levels.  First, it’s of course awful to lose a series to a division opponent, and the Brewers managed to win just a single game of the four-game series, three of which went into extra innings.  And of course the Cubs aren’t just any division opponent; they’re the Hated, Evil, Despised Cubs, the ones whose fans regularly turn Miller Park into little more than their own pigpen.  And of course, this wasn’t just any series.  Entering play the Brewers were 3.5 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central standings; a sweep would have placed them atop the division.

It’s not as if the Brewers had great odds of winning the division before the Cubs came to town. Down their ace pitcher Jimmy Nelson, Fangraphs gave them just a 2.9% chance of securing a division title even before the Cubs series.  That’s still better than where they currently sit, 5.5 games back with a 0% division probability.  And there’s definitely some skepticism about the Brewers baked into those prognostications, as the Cardinals (currently 6 games behind the Cubs, .5 games behind the Brewers) still have the slightest (i.e., .1%) hope of a division crown.

What the Brewers really damaged with their failure to emerge victorious was their ability to win a wild card berth.  On September 20, Fangraphs pegged the Brewers at an 18.7% chance to win a wild card; that’s down to about 13% now.  And the Brewers are lucky it isn’t less than that; the Colorado Rockies utterly failed to put away a terrible San Diego Padres team in their 4-game series, salvaging a split on the final day of the set.  Fangraphs likes the Rockies to win the second wild card at a 77% probability, which is understandable with a 1.5-game lead over the Brewers and a 2.5-game lead over the Cards with just a handful of games left to play.

Due to lineup variances and pitching changes that might happen with a playoff berth on the line, it isn’t immensely useful to predict how individual games might come out at the end of the year.  But let’s take a stab at it anyway, just for fun.  Hopefully we’ll come away with some perspective on what the Brewers need to accomplish over the final six games.

Let’s take the Cardinals out of the equation for a moment and focus on the Brewers’ and Rockies’ remaining schedules.  There are a couple reasons for doing that with just two series remaining:  (1) the Cardinals currently face an ultra-difficult opponent in the Cubs, who have already locked down game 1; and (2) the Cardinals’ other remaining opponent is the Brewers.  That’s a series the Brewers are probably going to have to win if they want to keep their playoff hopes afloat.

The Brewers kick off a three-game series tonight at Miller Park against the Reds:

Deck McGuire vs. Zach Davies

Deck makes his first major league start.  That should be a win, but we all know how the Brewers tend to struggle with new pitchers.  Half the Reds’ lineup has homered off Davies, and there are some very notable players he has trouble putting away (looking at you, Joey Votto).  Doesn’t look like a great start to the series.  Projection: (L).

Homer Bailey vs. Brandon Woodruff

Woodruff has really struggled of late, but he’s a better pitcher than his 6+ ERA over the last 3 starts would suggest.  He’ll probably get dinged around a bit, but lordy, the Brewers certainly tee off against Homer Bailey.  This one has slugfest written all over it, and I think the Brewers can win that high-scoring battle.  Projection: (W).

Sal Romano vs. Brent Suter

As a team, the Reds are slashing just .244/.318/.418 against lefties, plus Suter pitching actually removes a very potent bat in Scooter Gennett from the lineup (his troubles against lefties continue this year, hitting just .242/.286/.414).  Romano, meanwhile, has made two starts against the Brewers already this season, allowing a total of 8 earned runs over 8 innings.  I’m looking forward to this one.  Projection: (W).

Next, a three-game series in St. Louis to end the season:

Chase Anderson vs. John Gant

Projecting this far out gets us into TBD territory as far as the pitchers go.  We know Chase will start for the Brewers, but if the Cardinals’ backs are really against the wall, they could go with Luke Weaver on short rest.  Weaver would be the much tougher matchup, but I’d not bet against Chase Anderson.  St. Louis regulars Yadier Molina, Dexter Fowler, Steven Piscotty, and Matt Carpenter have all failed to do much against him in the past.  Projection: (W).

Zach Davies vs. Luke Weaver

If Weaver doesn’t start Game 1, he’ll certainly be in for Game 2.  The 24-year-old has been a phenom in 12 appearances this year (9 starts), with a 132 ERA+ and a 2.86 FIP.  No Brewer except Ryan Braun has more than a handful of at-bats against Weaver, but Eric Thames has really teed off against the young righty, amassing two home runs and a walk in six plate appearances.  Meanwhile, Jedd Gyorko, Piscotty, and Carpenter have all smacked around Davies pretty good (assuming he gets this start and not the final game, which would make this a bullpen/Woodruff start).  I don’t think the Brewers keep up in this one.  Projection: (L).

??? vs. Carlos Martinez

What the Brewers plan to do with this start is anyone’s guess.  The rotation is in shambles, they’re down to just two starters they broke spring training with, and I presume they don’t want to put too much stress on Suter by starting him on REALLY short rest.  But let’s assume this is an “all hands on deck game” and the bullpen comes through.  Carlos Martinez has shown over the last few starts that he’s mortal, and he gets another tough challenge tonight in the Cubs.  The Brewers have handled him well enough, especially Braun, Hernan Perez, Domingo Santana, and Jonathan Villar.  What the heck, it’s a win to end the season.

Even if the Brewers finish 4-2, they’re going to have to pray the Rockies drop all but a game in their final five games to win the wild card outright.  The Rockies get Miami for a two-game set, followed by three against the Dodgers, all at home.  If the Rockies go 2-3, the Brewers and Rockies tie with a regular season win total of 86-76.  In that case, the Rockies and Brewers play a one-game series to determine who wins a wild card berth.  That would be hosted by the Rockies by virtue of their having a better record in head-to-head matchups (4-3).

 

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Brewers Do the Right Thing At the Deadline

david-stearnsThe high-water mark for the Brewers this season was July 15, at which point they looked down upon the NL Central from a 5.5 game perch.  With the All-Star break (signaling the unofficial beginning of baseball’s second half) having come and gone earlier in the week, and two wins under their belt to start the long summer stretch, things were looking up.

But what goes up usually comes down, and by July 30, the 5.5 game lead had become a distant memory.  A brutal road trip left the team’s record in shambles: swept in four games in Pittsburgh, losses in two out of three games in Philadelphia, a single win in Washington D.C., and a brutal series defeat at the hands of the Cubs in their return home.  The carnage relegated the Brewers to 2.5 games back at the close of business on Sunday.

What was a storied run atop the Central, the kind that had finally attracted the notice of national writers everywhere, vanished in what seemed like an instant.  And GM David Stearns was left with a mess on his hands.

When the Brewers acquired C.C. Sabathia on July 7, 2008, the trade came with the stipulation that it occur as early as possible to maximize the pitcher’s innings with his new team.  GM Doug Melvin was at the time so confident in Sabathia’s ability to propel the Brewers to the postseason that he offered up the team’s best prospect in the trade, 1B Matt LaPorta.

With a 4.66 ERA after April, the Brewers starting corps hardly looked like a solid bet to challenge the Cubs for the NL Central lead.  And yet, despite losing opening day starter Junior Guerra and Chase Anderson for extended periods, the Brewers improved their starting rotation’s ERA – in every single month, all the way to a 3.51 ERA in July.  In other words, by ERA the starting rotation improved from a bottom 5 to a top 6 rotation over the course of four months.  (FIP is a little less kind to the Brewers, but hey, when Manny Pina can throw out would-be basestealers at a 33% clip and Lewis Brinson can go over the wall to rob home runs, it’s going to fudge the numbers a bit).

The general improvement in the starting rotation-led by Zach Davies’ recent reemergence, as well as an All-Star caliber season from Jimmy Nelson-lessened the pressure to pay for a top arm like Sonny Gray.  And boy, would the price tag have been exorbitant.  The mere rumors surrounding Gray and the Brewers prompted the Cubs to make a preemptive move and trad their top two prospects (including a consensus top 5 prospect) for Jose Quintana.  The Yankees later acquired Gray for the team’s 4th, 8th, and 12th best prospects.  For reference, that would have been Brett Phillips, Tristen Lutz, and Brandon Woodruff for the Brewers, according to MLB.com.

Meanwhile, the Brewers bullpen hasn’t found similar success.  The relief corp in the top half of the league in Fangraph’s “Meltdowns” stat and lead the league in walks per 9 innings.  They give up far too many home runs, and pitched too many innings early on.  Carlos Torres and Jacob Barnes, once thought to form a solid one-two punch in the 7th and 8th innings, are giving up a run nearly every other inning.  The one saving grace is the number of ground balls they produce, in no small part due to Jared Hughes’ extreme batted ball profile (nearly 60% grounders).  Corey Knebel, the Brewers’ lone All-Star representative, has distinguished himself and still holds a sparkling 1.68 ERA with 18 saves, but one man does not a bullpen make.

It’s only natural, then, that David Stearns, surveying the team’s general collapse, his starters’ strong performances, and the bullpen’s woes, decided to address the latter issue by making modest additions.  The Brewers first nabbed a resurgent 31-year-old right, Anthony Swarzak, from the White Sox for OF Ryan Cordell, the player to be named later in last year’s trade sending Jonathan Lucroy and Jeremy Jeffress to the Rangers.  Stearns also pulled off a deadline deal, reacquiring Jeffress from the Rangers in exchange for Shuckers RHP Tayler Scott.

Swarzak has already slotted into the set-up role; tonight is Jeffress’ first game back in now his third stint with the Brewers.  Jeffress hasn’t had a great year with Texas, but his previous body of work stands for itself.  (We’ll ignore Stearns earlier dealing for LHP Tyler Webb, who pitched all of 2 innings with Milwaukee before being sent down to Colorado Springs).

The modest acquisitions should help shore up a taxed bullpen (though Jeffress’ home run rate this season is reason for pause).  But most importantly, the players added cost little in terms of prospects.  The best prospect given up was Ryan Cordell, #17 on the team’s list according to MLB.com in a system brimming with OF talent.  Stearns didn’t make a splashy add like the Cubs, but he also did something the Cubs weren’t able to do: hold on to the team’s future.  The middle-of-the-road approach likely won’t win amongst the Brewers fanbase, but it’s the right tactic in a rebuilding year in which the Brewers find themselves suddenly in postseason contention.

The end of the line for Wily

May 14, 2017 was an important day for Wily Peralta.  Having been blasted by Boston for four runs over four and one-third innings in his previous start, he carried a 5.30 ERA into a home start against the Mets.  Peralta’s sinker had become increasingly ineffective, even as Peralta had been relying on it more.  His command-which was never his strong suit-had been terrible.  And in what was an opportunity to restore his team’s confidence in him as a starter, Peralta fell apart.  He labored through 4 and 1/3 innings of seven-run ball (six earned), although the Brewers would go on to win, 11-9.

That would be it for Wily in the starting rotation, though.  On May 17, the Brewers announced he would transition to the bullpen, a change many (including me) thought would be a positive change.  Peralta has many faults as a pitcher, but it’s never been his raw stuff; his heavy sinking fastball and biting slider had people positively salivating for his debut when Zack Greinke went down with a freak injury in early 2011.  The results, though, have never matched that potential.

The move to the bullpen seemed great for a few reasons.  Peralta would no longer have to worry about facing the same hitters multiple times.  He wouldn’t have to worry about extending himself over six or seven innings (something that, until the end of last season, appeared to happen relatively infrequently) and could give full effort, especially on his high-90s fastball.  And management could select his usage, reserving him for those situations in which Peralta’s frequent mistakes might not be so heavily punished.

Instead, Peralta has been absolutely pounded out of the pen.  In 13 and 2/3 innings, he’s allowed sixteen runs, walking nearly as many against fourteen strikeouts.  The move to the bullpen has actually ballooned his ERA from 6.08 to 7.21, and factoring in defense improves it substantially but still shows Peralta is a poor pitcher (5.00 FIP).  Peralta has not allowed a run in only two of his nine appearances, and last night he turned a 4-1 game (still well within reach for this offense) into an 8-1 blowout against the Pirates.

Somehow, Peralta still might wind up being an above-replacement level player for the season.  And his poor performance wouldn’t even be an issue if the Brewers weren’t still in first place in mid-June.  But the fact that they are only puts added pressure on the team to put the best players on the field, which means there are precious few innings to allow Peralta to continue to acclimate to his new role.  A minor league assignment is out of the question; Peralta has no options.

And so, as Craig Counsell put it after last night’s game, “it’s getting tough.”  It’s getting tough for the team, tough for fans, tough for management to watch Wily Peralta flail in hopes of rekindling the hope everyone once had for him.  This seems the definition of a “fresh start” situation for a player.  It’s time to move on.

Doomed by starting pitching

By Nathan Petrashek (@npetrashek)

Most reasonable forecasts of the 2017 Brewers saw them having an above-average offense, a decent bullpen and a below-average starting rotation.  Back in mid-April, when the Brewers were the Hottest Team in Baseball, they tended to buck this expectation: a series sweep in Toronto with 4-3 and 2-0 wins, followed by consecutive wins in Cincinnati of 5-1 and 10-4.  During that stretch, starters Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson, Tommy Milone and Chase Anderson limited their opponents to 7 runs over 25 innings, with 22 Ks to show for their efforts.  Peralta chipped in again with a 6-inning, 2-run effort in the final game of that Reds series.

It was fun while it lasted.  The Brewers, staked at one point to a 10-4 lead yesterday, eeked out an 11-7 win over the Reds.  Matt Garza, in his 2017 debut, pitched much worse than his final line shows, allowing 4 runs over 4 innings (only 1 earned).  In the four-game series against the Cardinals, only Chase Anderson was able to last 6 innings; Peralta imploded for 6 earned runs, Zach Davies for 4, and Nelson walked 6 in his 5 1/3-inning start.

Collectively, Brewers starters are 27th in baseball in ERA (4.53), 29th in opponent batting average (.271), and 29th in WHIP (1.39).  Call me a pessimist, but I don’t see Matt Garza riding in on a white horse to improve those numbers.  Meanwhile, the Brewers lead the MLB by a huge margin in HR (37) and SLG (.463).  They’re third in SB (17), runs (102), and OPS (.770), the latter of which just goes to show that the Brewers struggle to get on base despite a seemingly team-wide trend towards plate discipline.  And of course, the Brewers lead the league in strikeouts, with 214.

Heavy hitting, high scoring, high strikeout, bad starting pitching.  The 2017 Brewers, through April 25th, are who we thought they were.

2017 Position Preview: First Base, League Context, Chris Carter, and Eric Thames

By Nathan Petrashek (@npetrashek)

thamesIt’s no secret that home runs were way up in 2016.  One-hundred-eleven players hit at least twenty home runs in 2016, easily topping the 64 from 2015 and 2014’s 57.  With no obvious explanation for the home run surge, speculation has ranged from pitchers throwing more cutters to hitting adjustments against hard throwers and even “juiced” baseballs.  Whatever the cause, 2016 saw the second-most home runs ever in a major league season.  There were an average of 1.16 home runs hit per game: a higher per-game average than during most of the steroid-infused years of the 1990s and 2000s.

Although only two Brewers players topped twenty home runs for the team, they did help usher in the year of the homer.  Brewers collectively hit just a handful more homers than the league average.  And several lineup regulars set new personal single-season records in home runs: Jonathan Villar (19), Scooter Gennett (14), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (13), Domingo Santana (11), and Hernan Perez (13).

But when it came to raw power, there was only one Brewers player really worth talking about: Chris Carter.  And not just a team leader; Carter’s battle with Nolan Arenado for the National League home run title in the season’s final series was the highlight of an otherwise fairly forgettable year on the field.  They wound up tied at 41.

Carter, who hit .199 with 24 homers and 64 RBIs in 2015, made $4,175,000 in 2015 in his first year of arbitration. The Houston Astros let him go rather than pay the likely more than $5 million salary he would have commanded in arbitration in 2016.  The flaws in his game that led to his being non-tendered were apparent during Carter’s 2016 season with the Brewers; he maintained his low contact rate and struck out a league-leading 206 times.  But he also hit some monstrous home runs.

And yet, despite his prominent place atop the National League home run leaderboard, Carter couldn’t get a 2017 contract.  The Brewers weren’t interested, despite the fact that they had no obvious replacement candidate at the time.  Carter settled for a 1-year, $3 million contract from the New York Yankees, a meager deal reflective of just how little teams value power in light of last year’s surge.

To fill the gap, the Brewers looked to Korea, plucking lefty Eric Thames from the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization.  Thames, a Korean League MVP and owner of a 40/40 season in 2015, hit for a 1.162 OPS over four foreign seasons and turned his success into a 3-year, $16M deal with the Brewers.

Prior to that, Thames was the definition of a AAAA player.  He performed well enough in the high minors, with a triple slash line of .312/.389/.506 over three seasons.  And there were reasons to be optimistic following Thames’ 2012 campaign with the Blue Jays, in which he posted a .193 ISO over 394 plate attempts.  But 2013 was disastrous; Thames’ 30% K-rate and dreadful defense doomed him to the minors, from whence he would not return to MLB.

Until now. So what are we to make of Thames with the Brewers going forward?  Assuming the power sticks (and there’s no guarantee it will, as explained below), he couldn’t be going to a better park for a lefty masher than Miller Park.  And given his contract and the Brewers’ lack of a serviceable bat at the position, playing time won’t be an issue in the same way it was prior to Thames’ time in Korea.

But there’s a notoriously short track record for players coming from Korea and having success in the States.  And Korean players generally benefit from smaller parks and a hitting philosophy that does not emphasize on-base skills; in other words, Korea was perfectly suited to Thames’ predilection to swing at first-pitch fastballs.  Add that to the relative success of Thames’ Korean teammates last season (of the top eight NC Dinos players in plate attempts, all but one hit above .297), one definitely gets the sense that offensive output in Korean baseball is inflated.  So I’m not bullish on Thames, but I see the appeal.

While there’s little chance Thames will put up another 40-home-run season in his transition year, it doesn’t seem likely any of his NL Central competition will, either.  In fact of the expected NL Central first basemen, STEAMER projects only Anthony Rizzo to top 30 home runs – and then just barely.  Thames’ STEAMER projection comes pretty darn close to Rizzo’s:  their ISO is within .002 points, and while it’s safe to say Rizzo’s going display more on-base prowess than Thames, their slash lines are otherwise remarkably close (.279/.381/.523 for Rizzo, .272/.350/.515 for Thames).

It’s an optimistic projection to be sure, but if it proves accurate, Thames may push Rizzo as the most productive first baseman in the division, ahead of even Joey Votto.  I think Thames will fall short of those lofty goals given his trouble making contact and his rather average batted ball profile, but Brewers fans probably won’t be able to gripe much for his rather small contract.  With a win above replacement currently valued at around $7+ million, Thames could be an excellent return on investment even if he’s not Anthony Rizzo.

 

 

Closers and superficial baseball analysis

By Nathan Petrashek (@npetrashek)

Former AL Manager of the Year Buck Showalter. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens, File)

In the aftermath of the two Wild Card games, the popular dissection (including on ESPN immediately after Mets-Giants) involves a juxtaposition of game outcomes based on closer appearance (or non-appearance): “One team loses without its closer pitching, another loses when its closer blows the game.”

These are true statements, in terms of both history and in the sense that closers do not manufacture guaranteed outs.  We know this because we’ve all seen blown saves.  And so it’s curious that the closer has been elevated to something of a mythical stature, no doubt due to the fact that some of baseball’s most legendary pitchers (e.g., Mariano Rivera, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage) have earned their Hall of Fame credentials in that role.

But let’s not forget that guys like Fernando Rodney (nearly top-30 all time in saves and rocking a career 3.69 ERA) are also closers.  As anyone who has played fantasy baseball for any length of time can tell you, the closer role is one of the most volatile in baseball.  Being a team’s “closer” is a double-edged sword:  it sets the player up for a nice payday later on, but the odds are against any individual pitcher succeeding in that role for very long.  More often than not, the closer is just a guy with perhaps a slightly better skill set than the rest of the bullpen, but who is never really placed in the best opportunity to succeed thanks to always taking the ball in the 9th inning.

Zach Britton, the Orioles closer, was not just a guy this season, and had yet to pitch in the Wild Card game as the bottom of the 11th inning approached in the tie affair.  Clearly Baltimore’s best pitcher (0.54 regular-season ERA, which is the only ERA Britton would have this year), everyone expected the lefty Britton to get a shot against the heart of the Blue Jays order, consisting of right-handed hitters Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, and Edwin Encarnacion.  He did not get that opportunity; instead, Buck Showalter sent in the homer-prone, generally terrible Ubaldo Jimenez.  The results were predictable: single, single, home run.

Showalter’s decision was indefensible, certainly not justified by Britton’s platoon splits (he is also very good against right-handers).  Showalter’s narrow-mindedness cost the Orioles in two ways:  first, Showalter was saving his closer for a time when his team had the lead, which of course was never guaranteed to happen; and second, because the Orioles’ closer was also the team’s best pitcher, he never made it into a tied, winner-take-all playoff game.  The reality is that Britton, label or not, was simply in a better position to get those three outs than Jimenez.

Terry Collins made a different decision in a similar situation in Wednesday’s Mets-Giants game.  With a tie in the top of the 9th inning, Collins brought in his closer against the bottom half of the Giants order.  This was at least a defensible decision, if not the correct one.  Familia is one of the Mets’ best relievers, has a good strikeout rate and the best groundball rate on the team.  It was reasonable to expect him to slice and dice his way through Brandon Crawford, Angel Pagan, and Joe Panik.

That illusion quickly fell away.  Familia was wild, missing badly with two pitches to Crawford and sending two more right down main street.  Crawford deposited pitch #4 into left field.  If the signs of trouble were not manifest then, they certainly were even as Familia struck out Pagan on six pitches, at least two of which Pagan should have clobbered but fouled off.  Panik’s at-bat ended with a seven-pitch walk; five pitches missed the strike zone by a mile.  One would expect Collins, by this point, to have had Josh Edgin or Jerry Blevins warming to face the left-handed Connor Gillespie, but instead Collins left his right-handed closer in.  The game would effectively end with Familia’s third pitch to Gillespie, who went yard on a sinker up in the zone.  Familia threw nearly 30 pitches in the inning; one wonders whether any other reliever would have had a similarly long leash.

One team loses without its closer.  Another loses with him.  Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.  The better point here, lost in baseball writers’ attempts at irony, is that there is nothing magical about a closer.  It’s just a label thrown on a guy who traditionally pitches in what is typically the last inning of a game, and oftentimes prevents that pitcher from being used in the most optimal situations.  Yet, in true Halloween fashion, the “closer” continues to haunt playoff teams.

Brewers and Mets aren’t obvious trade partners for Lucroy

By Nathan Petrashek (@npetrashek)

As has been reported for a couple days now, the Mets are interested in acquiring Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy.  The Mets have a clear need at catcher; they rank 20th in catcher fWAR, and the position is collectively slashing  an abysmal .214/.294/.310.  Travis d’Arnaud, a once-heralded prospect just a few years ago, has so far this season contributed to the woeful state of the position, slashing just .238/.293/.328 (72 wRC+).

Pardon me if, like the Brewers, I’m not weak in the knees by the Mets’ straight-up offer of d’Arnaud for Lucroy.

The main attraction from the Brewers standpoint would be d’Arnaud’s pedigree and remaining team control.  This from Mets GM Sandy Alderson in 2012, upon acquiring d’Arnaud from Toronto in 2012 as part of the R.A. Dickey deal:

“We viewed d’Arnaud, and I believe the industry views Travis, as the top catching prospect in the game,” Alderson said. “And not just the top catching prospect, but the one who is closest to major league ready, if not now major league ready. In addition, we think his upside is such that he could be a significant player for us over the next many years.”

D’Arnaud was, indeed, close to “major league ready,” if for no other reason than he wound up logging nearly 100 at bats for the Mets in 2013.  The results would suggest otherwise, though.  D’Arnaud was dreadful in his cup of coffee, and followed that up in 2014 with a full season’s worth of barely-above-replacement-level production.  2015 looked like d’Arnaud’s breakout season (he hit .268/.340/.485), prompting such laudatory articles as this from Mark Simon of ESPN.

Prophetically, the opening paragraph of Simon’s piece is as follows:

Travis d’Arnaud is on the cusp of becoming really good. It’s something those who judge baseball players for a living have been saying about him for the last three seasons. And yet one scout I regularly speak with says you have to be patient with catchers and give them time. The time for d’Arnaud, who turns 27 in February, is right now. But his biggest challenge may be staying healthy.

Indeed, d’Arnaud missed half of last season with an elbow injury, and has again spent time on the disabled list in 2016 with a shoulder injury.

While there’s no doubting d’Arnaud’s status as a former top prospect, there is ample reason to question the value of his remaining team control.  D’Arnaud is arbitration eligible for the first time next year, and he’s slated to become a free agent in 2020.  Don’t mistake d’Arnaud’s lack of service time for youth, though: d’Arnaud is already 27, and while Simon was right to remark about the necessity of patience with catchers, d’Arnaud is running out of time to prove his mettle at catcher.  There are already calls from the notoriously impatient New York media for him to change positions to preserve his health.

So in sum: the Mets want 1.5 years of arguably the top catcher in baseball in exchange for 3 years of a maybe-decent, often-injured once-prospect.  I’ll pass, thank you.

This isn’t to say the Mets aren’t in any sense a match for the Brewers on a Lucroy trade; it just seems very unlikely.  The player most likely to draw the Brewers’ interest is the Mets’ top prospect, 1B Dominic Smith, who is a power-hitting lefty widely regarded as a top-50 prospect in baseball generally.  A member of the 2013 draft class, Smith is currently slashing .284/.344/.447 in AA Birmingham.  The Mets have their own long-term question mark at 1B, though, with Lucas Duda set to be a free agent in 2018.  As a team with the pitching to remain competitive for some time, it seems unlikely the Mets would be willing to mortgage the future for an outside shot at the playoffs this season and whatever next season might bring with Lucroy.

Beyond Smith? Not much that would be of obvious interest to the Brewers, unless their plan is to simply stockpile talent regardless of position.  It’s not that the Mets’ farm clubs are devoid of talent; it’s just that the team’s 2nd to 7th best prospects all play SS and OF, positions at which the Brewers are currently loaded.  Perhaps SS Gavin Cecchini could shift to 2B, but I’m doubtful the Mets would be willing to pull the trigger on d’Arnaud and Cecchini for Lucroy.  And here again we have a useful building block for the Mets going forward, as their current 2B, Neil Walker, is a free agent at years’ end.

This is all to say that I find it highly unlikely Lucroy is dealt to the Mets before the trade deadline.  With that deadline looming, there’s certain to be much more noise in the coming days.